CAPE TOWN/South Africa: Africa is home to an estimated US$29.5 trillion in mine-site mineral value—about 20 per cent of global mineral wealth—yet captures only a small fraction of the economic value embedded in this vast endowment, according to a new study released by the Africa Finance Corporation.
The report notes that about US$8.6 trillion of Africa’s mineral value remains undeveloped, underscoring the continent’s status as under-explored. It attributes this gap to fragmented geological data, uneven coverage and limited transparency, factors that heighten risk perception and continue to deter large-scale investment. Improving the availability and quality of geological data, the study argues, is a critical first step toward de-risking projects and unlocking exploration capital.
Beyond mine-site valuation, the study stresses that Africa’s true mineral potential is significantly understated. It notes that the real economic value of minerals emerges when they are processed into steel, aluminium, fertilisers, batteries and specialised alloys. Measured at the point of industrial use, Africa’s mineral endowment expands by an order of magnitude, revealing substantial latent value that remains largely untapped.
The findings are contained in the Compendium of Africa’s Strategic Minerals, unveiled at Mining Indaba in Cape Town. The publication reframes Africa’s mineral sector through a development-focused lens, placing industrialisation, infrastructure and long-term regional demand at the heart of mineral strategy.
Speaking at the launch, Samaila Zubairu, President and Chief Executive Officer of AFC, said the Compendium aims to shift the conversation from resource endowment to execution. “The Compendium maps full value chains and links reserves and production to processing capacity, power and transport infrastructure, and regional industrial corridors—improving data transparency to de-risk exploration, lower the cost of capital, and guide smarter investment into mining and the enabling infrastructure needed for beneficiation and integrated regional value chains,” he said.
The study highlights a structural misalignment between mineral production, enabling infrastructure and demand across the continent, calling for stronger regional planning anchored in Africa’s long-term material needs. Using the steel value chain as an example, it notes that while Africa hosts world-class endowments of ferro-alloys and iron ore, these supply chains remain tied to Asian steel cycles rather than Africa’s own development trajectory.
This exposure, the report argues, has proved economically costly. A slowdown in Asian steel demand—driven largely by China’s property downturn—has transmitted shocks into African mineral markets. In the Democratic Republic of the Congo, cobalt production quotas have been imposed to manage oversupply and collapsing prices. In South Africa, primary steelmaking capacity has shut down amid weak domestic demand and high costs, while major manganese operations in Gabon have faced periodic suspensions due to softer alloy demand from Asia.
These disruptions are occurring even as Africa expands transport networks, power systems, housing and industrial capacity that depend on these same materials. According to the Compendium, the challenge is not a lack of demand but the failure to align mineral production, processing capacity and infrastructure investment around Africa’s long-term development needs.
Infrastructure is identified as the central pillar of an effective mineral strategy—not merely as an enabler, but as the system that connects raw materials, processing facilities and end-use demand. Power costs and reliability, transport connectivity and access to industrial land are described as decisive factors in determining whether beneficiation is commercially viable.
To address this, the report maps mineral deposits and producing assets alongside railways, ports, power generation hubs and transmission networks, identifying where regional value chains can realistically be developed. It calls for targeted investment in shared rail corridors and cross-border power transmission, particularly in mineral-rich regions where coordinated infrastructure could unlock scale and support regional industrial platforms.
The Compendium also situates Africa’s mineral strategy within a fragmenting global economy shaped by trade tensions, export controls and industrial policy. While these shifts elevate the strategic relevance of Africa’s minerals, the report cautions that benefits will accrue only where the continent can offer reliable, value-adding alternatives to global markets.
Rather than remaining a marginal supplier of raw materials, the study advocates selective integration into strategically exposed segments of global supply chains—particularly for minerals with highly concentrated processing markets such as manganese, rare earths, graphite and uranium.
Encouraging signs are already emerging. Angola is developing one of the world’s largest high-grade rare earth magnet metal deposits; Mozambique has become a key feedstock hub for graphite and anode materials; battery-grade manganese sulphate projects are advancing in Southern Africa; and uranium production has resumed in Namibia and Malawi between 2024 and 2025.
According to the AFC, these developments point to a narrow but critical window for Africa to convert mineral endowment into sustainable industrial growth—provided data transparency, infrastructure coordination and regional demand anchoring are addressed with urgency.
